Skip to main content

Turn Out Is Key. Election 2017. High Turnout and Labour Wins!!! #VoteLabour #DriveAfreindtothePollingPlace

Link To Lord Ashcroft Polling.

This Graph Explains the Importance of Turnout to the outcome of the Election Tomorrow.

If Turnout is the 72.2% of the Brexit Referendum last year you can see that the Light Blue line shows That the middle third of the probability distribution curve on Ashcroft's polling numbers has a Tory Majority of between 20 and 60 seats.
The 2015 turnout was 66.1 % overall. around the same as 1997 general election less than the 77% for the 92 vote. Historically the 1950 and 51 elections had over 80% turnouts.






1.Main points


The total number of UK parliamentary electors in 2015 was 44,722,000, a fall of 1.3% from 2014.
The total number of UK local government electors in 2015 was 46,204,700, a fall of 1.3% from 2014.
Between 2014 and 2015, the total number of both parliamentary and local government electors fell in England, Wales and Scotland, but increased in Northern Ireland.
The number of parliamentary electors fell in all regions of England between 2014 and 2015. The largest decrease (-1.6%) was in the West Midlands, the smallest in the East Midlands (-0.1%).
Between 2014 and 2015, the number of local government electors fell in all regions of England, apart from the East Midlands which saw an increase of 0.02%. The largest decreases were in London and the South East, both of which decreased by 1.6%.
The 2015 electoral statistics represent the first full registers following completion of the transition to Individual Electoral Registration (IER) introduced in England, Wales and Scotland in 2014.
Electoral statistics are used by Boundary Commissions, the Electoral Commission and central government to help with the improvement of electoral policies and for statutory reviews of parliamentary constituency boundaries.


For this General Election, the Pollsters are using a number of different techniques to second guess actual declared voting intention with the Results for 2015 where they were somewhat bamboozled. The thing with Assigning probabilities and making educated guesses is that assumptions however screened for bias they may be are still predictions based upon a best guess.

What we can say for certain is that the Higher the turnout than the higher the likelihood of other parties doing better than the conservatives.

The Tories were notable amongst all the parties on Social media in that they did not encourage voters, particularly the younger newly minted voters to Register, Lord Ashcroft perhaps told them something, The Same thing I am telling you now. If Turnout gets into the mid 70% range There is every chance of a Historic even Heroic electoral upset.

If the Turnout hits or Exceeds the record Brexit referendum voting level, Mrs May will be ordering a removal van, IS that a Boy Job or a Girl Job I wonder?




Popular posts from this blog

Syria Cui Bono, Incitatus (Boris Johnson) Caligula (john Kerry) and the Curious case of the New Consul at the United Nations Security Council (Updated 7th April , Trump ordered attack On Syria)

UPDATE FOR CONTEXT:

Roger Lewis7 April 2017 at 12:56 Syria is all about Gas, not poison Sarin Gas but Gas Pipelines. It is also not about Hydro Carbons in themselves but the market for hydrocarbons and which currency contracts of supply are settled in otherwise known  as,  US petrodollar hegemony.
https://letthemconfectsweeterlies.blogspot.se/2017/04/sand-box-for-carbon-based-currency-end.html
Legitimate question. Does Jared Kushner have any interests in the Leviathan Gas field or any of the Israeli-backed Pipeline projects? #MAGA#Drain The Swamp. Starting to dig around will report back.

https://letthemconfectsweeterlies.blogspot.se/2017/04/the-bortherhood-of-gas-ring-quatar-gas.html


THE BROTHERHOOD OF THE GAS RING. QATARI GAS, OR SAUDI HEGENOMY, TRUMP BACKS THE SAUDIS? TANGLED WEB INDEED Tangled Web,  Syria and Gas. Trump meets Egyptian President, that is a rejection of the Moslem Brotherhood, siding against Qatar in Syria and With Saudi broadly and therefore the ISIL Wahabbist and Saud…

Meet The Fuggers, Brexit, The Euro and Clueless Elites.

Meet the Fuggers or, its the Money Power stupid. Brexit, The Euro and clueless Elites.



The Eastern Roman empire under Justinian saw the seeds of its final fall to The Ottomans when Abd El Melik started paying tribute in Gold coinage under his own Political Branding you might say.

With all the talk of Brexit being the removal of a final obstacle to the deeper federation of a European State transcending tiresome nationalism, perhaps a little review of History, particularly Monetary history, might not be such a bad thing.

In the review of European competences carried out as a consultation by the foreign office regarding Brexit and or reform requirements of the Eu, two of the papers need to be considered in the context of the Money power argument.

The first paper considered is the Subsidiarity and proportionality aspects of the Lisbon treaty and the competences of the EU institutions vis National and regional democratic institutions. This is a trade-off between Centralised Efficiency and …

Cashless Society, BlockChain, Global Warming, Gold, Carbon . Geo Political Full House.

rogerglewis9:02 am on October 26, 2017Permalink | Reply | Edit | FollowIMF Head on Climate: “we will be toasted, roasted and grilled”  Roger Lewis October 26, 2017 at 7:57 am #
https://wattsupwiththat.com/2017/10/25/imf-head-on-climate-we-will-be-toasted-roasted-and-grilled/comment-page-1/#comment-2646454 Legarde pushing the AGW Global Warming Narrative reported on Watts Up With That today. Upticks in CLimate Stories and developments on the Petro Dollar are quite common.
I am certain that the two things are not unrelated. rogerglewis Your comment is awaiting moderation.
October 25, 2017 at 11:51 pm
Things are really hotting up on the Future Prospects of the Petro Dollar. Climate Change particularly the AGW CO2 Narrative is clung to with religious zeal and promoted by Finance Elites, why is that?
China are rolling out the Petro Yuan, backed by gold.
http://www.golemxiv.co.uk/2017/10/chinas-rise-americas-fall/ The IMF wish to cling to the Petro Dollar hegemon this is best done by having t…